DCDelhi Capitals
Reach the playoffs10% → to 6.1% −4.2
Win the title0.9% → to 0.4% −0.5
Wins a season (of 18)7.2 → to 6.5 −0.7
Pant for Kuldeep: who won the trade?
Rishabh Pant to Delhi Capitals, Kuldeep Yadav to Lucknow Super Giants. We played IPL 2026 1,600 times with each squad: as it was, and after the trade.
DCDelhi Capitals get
Value −₹2.5 cr · Money adds ₹1.8 cr
LSGLucknow Super Giants get
Bowler · IPL 2026: 12 matches, 9 runs, 10 wickets
- New fee
- ₹13.5 cr
₹13.25 cr - IPL value
- ₹15.5 cr
Value +₹2.5 cr · Money frees ₹13.5 cr
IPL 2026, played 1,600 times with each squad
LSG win the trade
With the trade, DC win 0.7 fewer matches a season; LSG win 0.8 more matches a season. LSG free ₹13.5 cr for the auction.
LSGLucknow Super GiantsWins the trade
Reach the playoffs3.9% → to 9.4% +5.5
Win the title0.3% → to 0.9% +0.6
Wins a season (of 18)6.2 → to 7.1 +0.8
Pant moves on a new fee of ₹15 cr, down from the ₹27 cr Lucknow paid him at the 2025 auction; Kuldeep moves at ₹13.5 cr.
How the trade is played
Value is our IPL value: what a mega auction would pay for each player today. Money is what each side frees or adds: the side that sends a player frees his old contract, and the side that gets him pays the fee the trade set.
The simulation plays IPL 2026 again, every ball, each side meeting every other twice and then the playoffs, with each player as he played that season and each side picking its best twelve before every match. It is played 1,600 times with the squads as they were and 1,600 times after the trade. Only players who played for their side in IPL 2026 can be simulated. Changes of a point or two in the chances can be chance alone.